With last week’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and the ongoing January 6 hearings, once again we’re experiencing a never-ending cycle of bad news that makes it feel like the world is coming to an end. And while every election in the age of MAGA conservatism is important, it’s no exaggeration to state that this year’s upcoming midterms could usher in major changes in the United States.
Abortion rights: the fight isn’t over
Reproductive rights will be a huge midterm issue for many Americans. Even with Roe overturned, abortion rights can still be codified into federal law. Congress would need to pass a law that would provide the same protections that Roe did – a law giving women the right to abortion without excessive government restrictions. The law would be binding for all states. But Republicans have thus far successfully blocked any efforts to do so.
Under current filibuster rules, a three-fifths majority, or 60 votes, is required to stop debate on a bill, even if the bill has enough support to pass. Debate on a bill must conclude before the bill can be voted on, allowing an opposing minority to prevent the passage of a bill by indefinitely holding the floor of the Senate and preventing the bill from coming to a vote.
With the Senate currently split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, Republicans have been able to use the filibuster to block approval of abortion bills.
President Biden said this week that he would support suspending the Senate filibuster rule in order to codify abortion rights into law. However, not all Democratic senators support ending the filibuster. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have voiced opposition to ending the filibuster. And even if the filibuster rule were to be removed, the votes to codify abortion rights may not be there. In May, Democrats failed to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act, a bill that would have enshrined abortion rights into federal law. All Republicans voted against it, as did Manchin, stating the bill went too far.
But if Democrats can pick up just one more Senate seat in November, things could change. Last week’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade has led to early reports of soaring support for Democrats. Salon reports that at least three congressional polls now show Democrats holding a significant lead over Republicans. Republicans must defend 21 of the 35 seats up for reelection this year – two of which are in states Biden won in 2020. FiveThirtyEight forecasts show Democrats as very slight favorites to keep the Senate, possibly picking up Pennsylvania, where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is polling ahead of the Republican candidate, TV personality Mehmet Oz.
But Democrats still face significant challenges. The president’s party tends to lose seats at midterms, and has done so in all but two of the last 21 midterm elections. Biden’s approval rating is at 39%, the lowest of his presidency so far, and high inflation is a top concern for voters, which may increase the likelihood of Republicans taking control of the Senate. However, Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans to say the Supreme Court’s recent decision will encourage them to vote during midterms. In a recent poll, 78% of Democrats said they now are more likely to vote in this year’s midterms, compared to only 54% of Republicans.
According to the Washington Post, the balance of the Senate could be determined in four states where Democratic incumbents are up for reelection: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Let’s take a closer look at these Senate races.
Arizona
Biden’s approval has declined in Arizona, where Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly is up for reelection. The Republican candidate won’t be decided until August, but the top candidates all suffer from low name recognition. The state narrowly voted for Biden in 2020, and midterms are expected to be close. Kelly, a former astronaut, is seen as more favorable than his potential contenders, and Democrats are hoping his brand can withstand Biden’s low approval ratings.
Georgia
Democrat Raphael Warnock won a highly publicized special election in Georgia last year, and is now running for his first full term. Biden won Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes, and his approval ratings are low there as well. The leading Republican candidate is former NFL running back Herschel Walker, who has Trump’s endorsement. A new poll shows Warnock has a 10-point lead over Walker. (Side note: Stacey Abrams, who lost the gubernatorial election in 2018 in a race fraught with claims of voter suppression, is back in the race and currently tied with incumbent Brian Kemp at 48%).
Nevada
In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto is up against Republican nominee Adam Laxalt, the state’s former attorney general. Nevada is another state that is always close, and Cortez Masto won by a narrow margin in 2016. Laxalt lost a bid for governor in 2018, but only by 4 points. Given Biden’s low approval rating in the state, if Democrats aren’t galvanized – especially Latino and Asian American voters – a win for Cortez Masto could be tough.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire is also often close, and Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan won by only about 1,000 votes in 2016. But she has some advantages, and the Republican candidate won’t be decided until a September primary.
No matter where you live, make a plan to get involved with this year’s midterm elections, whether it’s by donating to key races, helping register young voters, providing rides to polling places on election day, or simply reminding your friends to vote. Follow Rock the Vote on social media and help spread accurate information to eligible voters.
